Recent Trends in the Flame Retardant Industry

A highly focused trend has emerged: the accelerated commercialization of sodium-ion battery technology is driving a structural surge in demand for antimony-based flame retardants, compounded by resource scarcity and policy constraints, leading to profound adjustments in supply chains. Below are key insights and supporting data:

1. Sodium-Ion Battery Anode Materials: A New Growth Engine for Antimony Demand

- Technological Breakthrough: Sodium-ion batteries developed by CATL, BYD, and others utilize a calcium-antimony (Ca-Sb) anode system, achieving an energy density of 175 Wh/kg (mass production phase). Theoretical antimony demand per GWh of battery capacity is 1,683 tons, but optimization has reduced actual demand to 1,178–1,346 tons/GWh.

- Capacity Plans:

- CATL plans 24 GWh of sodium-ion battery capacity in 2025, requiring 28,000–32,000 tons of antimony annually.

- BYD's 30 GWh capacity will demand 35,000–40,000 tons/year.

- Combined, these two companies will consume 25%–30% of global antimony production in 2025 (estimated at 132,000 tons).

- Supply Chain Challenges:

- China holds 32% of global antimony reserves but faces a reserve-to-production ratio of less than 6 years. Resource depletion in key mining regions (e.g., Hunan, Guizhou) is accelerating.

- China's antimony export controls (effective September 2024) caused a 57% year-over-year drop in Q1 2025 exports. Overseas antimony prices surged to $52,000/ton, with a domestic-international price gap of 180,000 yuan/ton.

2. "Antimony Dependency" in Flame Retardants vs. Competing Alternatives

- Resilience of Traditional Demand:

- Antimony trioxide (Sb₂O₃), a key synergist for brominated flame retardants, still accounts for 60% of the global flame retardant market.

- Rising power density in AI chips (e.g., NVIDIA H100 at 700W/chip) drives demand for flame-retardant electronics housings. Antimony consumption in flame retardants is projected to reach 86,000 tons in 2025.

- Progress in Alternatives:

- Phosphorus-Based Flame Retardants: May capture over 30% market share by 2025 but underperform Sb-halogen systems in high-temperature efficiency.

- Circular Economy: Lead-acid battery antimony recycling exceeds 95% efficiency, but recycling flame retardants from electronics remains immature (lab-stage only).

3. Strategic Recommendations for Investment

- Resource Consolidation: Focus on antimony resource leaders (e.g., Hunan Gold, Huayu Mining). Overseas projects like Huayu's Tajik mine (annual output increase of 16,000 tons) may provide critical supply increments.

- Technology Development: Prioritize R&D for sodium-ion anode alternatives (e.g., hard carbon anodes) and efficient antimony recycling technologies to alleviate supply chain pressures.

- Policy Risk Mitigation: Accelerate certification and adoption of antimony-free flame retardants (e.g., Hangzhou JLS's PVC antimony-free solutions) to comply with EU RoHS restrictions on antimony in electronics.